A Period of time of Adjustment
Oops! That giant hissing sound is the gaming balloon that experienced been growing in excess of the years, slowly and gradually losing air. But, it has not been a tide that reduced all ships nevertheless, as some rising and increasing gaming jurisdictions confirmed robust expansion in 2008.
General, the business and racetrack casino sectors (excluding Indian gaming), skilled a three.five p.c drop in gaming revenues for 2008, creating a complete of $36.2 billion, down some $800 million from 2007. It was the Racino sector that has tempered this drop, as they confirmed a acquire of practically $one billion in 2008, thus bringing the Industrial sector industry decrease to $1.8 billion, or six.7 p.c. Nevada was the largest loser in 2008, dropping practically $1.3 billion, far more than 50 percent of which stemmed from the Las Vegas Strip section.
Hunkering Down
For the most element, casino operators were caught relatively flat-footed by the extent of the 2008 income downturn, as it was not right up until the third and fourth quarters when it actually nosedived. Driving read more of 12 months more than 12 months industry progress across the nation and the availability of enough credit and fairness resources, new development and enlargement proliferated in current years. These days, faced with the realities of declining, or at greatest stagnant desire, many of these assignments are now regarded as more than-leveraged and/or over-sized. As a result numerous gaming organizations are trying to renegotiate their personal debt – manufactured much more difficult by decrease valuations – whilst also paring down operational expenses. The latter has turn into a extremely problematic conundrum when working with the competition, specifically in these jurisdictions that are now vying for industry shares with new rising on line casino projects in neighboring places. A topic we examine far more entirely in the State by State analysis segment of this publication.
As a outcome of these conditions the gaming business landscape is now strewn with impending fatalities. Between the far more noteworthy troubled firms are Station Casinos, Empire Resorts, Harrah’s Entertainment, Greektown Holdings, Legends Gaming, Tropicana Amusement, Herbst Gaming and the list grows every week.
“How long will these financial conditions persist, and are we at the base however?” are inquiries no a single seems to be answering nevertheless. What is obvious nonetheless is that most gaming jurisdictions will have to discover how to deal with a smaller sized pie.
Note:
This analysis consists of only gaming revenues of licensed casinos and pari-mutuel outlets that supply on line casino online games, and not Indian gaming operations, card rooms, or little non-on line casino type slot places. The whole post, like income tables is available on our net webpage.
Input/Output Product
A key element that seems to have arisen from the ashes of this recent trend is that a lot of casino projects had been just too massive to help themselves. The enter, in phrases of expense dollars, was not proportional to the output, in terms of internet revenue right after debt provider, compared to earlier achieved final results. Much more and/or bigger is not often much better. Viewing the rise in non-gaming revenue at the Las Vegas Strip resorts, gave impetus to the development of much more thorough features in numerous other jurisdictions. The flaw in this strategy nevertheless is that the costs linked with widening industry penetration and occasioned-use, are significantly greater than people incurred to attract the base market.
As daytripper marketplaces turn out to be more aggressive, on line casino venues will have to depend more and far more on their in-property hotel patrons, and dimension their properties (and expectations) appropriately. While Steve Wynn began a key pattern in generating up-industry mega-locations, there simply was not adequate desire on the Strip to warrant the numerous other equivalent tasks that adopted that aimed at the identical specialized niche.
The trick is to strike a pleased medium in venture configurations which of system demand significantly less of a ‘seat-of-pants’ approach, and one that is far more researched. A shameless plug for development consultants like ourselves.
Other Gaming Pursuits
Though there are no revealed detailed data of American Indian gaming revenues, anecdotal proof seems to suggest that this phase has been as tough hit as the Business sector. The two Connecticut Indian gaming installations report slot earnings of $one.6 billion in 2008, representing a drop of about 7 p.c, or nearly $114 million, a lot more than doubling the 3.5 p.c drop from the year just before. This industry is seemingly nevertheless reeling from the ripple-result of a casino growth in Rhode Island, and the opening of slot operations in New York and Pennsylvania.
The Arizona Department of Gaming studies that contributions based mostly on a gaming earnings formulation from the state’s 23 Indian gaming casinos, have been declining every quarter in 2008 when compared to the prior calendar year lowering .eight percent in the very first quarter, 7.5 % in the second quarter, nine.5 per cent in the third quarter, and sixteen.1 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Some SEC reporting Indian gaming houses report comparable decreases. Seneca Gaming, which operates a few Course III casinos in upstate New York, studies that even though calendar yr 2008 showed an nearly 2 % development fee in gaming revenues, there was an eight.seven p.c drop in the third quarter and an nearly ten percent decrease in the fourth quarter of 2008, in comparison with 2007. Gaming earnings tendencies at nearby Niagara Falls, Ontario had been down one.5% in 2008 in comparison with 2007.
It truly is been a combined-bag for point out lotteries throughout the place. The North American Affiliation of Point out & Provincial Lotteries stories that U.S. lotteries produced a total of $sixty.6 billion in product sales in fiscal 2008, up about 3 per cent from the previous yr but some jurisdictions reported decreases, most notably California, which confirmed an eight percent fall. Inasmuch as some of these states are on numerous fiscal calendar year ends, it would appear that the information does not reflect the affect of third and/or fourth quarter benefits.
In accordance to information provided by Equibase, horse racing pari-mutuel revenues carry on their downward spiral, slipping 7 per cent to $13.7 billion in 2008, versus $fourteen.seven billion in 2007.
Planned & Proposed New Expansions
As beforehand noted, it has been new gaming jurisdictions that have spawned much of the expansion in yearly casino/racino revenues in excess of the a long time, and their influence is apt to proceed into the near long term.
Florida
Miami Dade voters accredited a ballot issue that permits each of a few pari-mutuels to have a casino facility of up to two,000 slot equipment. The Flagler Pet Keep track of and Miami Jai-Alai are reportedly organizing opening in late 2009 or early 2010, although the Calder installation in Miami Gardens has yet to introduced its strategies. There are several other proposals becoming regarded as that would further expand on line casino development throughout the state.
Illinois
The condition lastly got close to to reissuing its tenth license, late in December, 2008 awarding it to Midwest Gaming & Enjoyment, LLC for a 1,200+ recreation casino located in Des Plaines just east of O’Hare. The new facility is not most likely to open up until 2010. There has also been some discussion about allowing an enhance in for each place gaming positions and slots at racetracks, despite the fact that neither initiative appears to have any traction at this time.
Kansas
The state’s expanded lottery program that allows for the development of 4 on line casino gaming zones and slots at present horse and dog tracks seems mired, as only one particular facility is presently beneath development, while 3 other proposals had been rescinded. The only bidder on the Cherokee County agreement, claimed it could not compete with the new Quapaw tribal casino in Oklahoma, which is situated so close to the condition line that its parking great deal is in Kansas. The Boot Hill Casino Resort in Dodge City is planing a December 2009 opening with 575 slots and 10 desk games, along with a 2nd period because of to open up in 2011 with 875 slots and 20 table video games. The point out has extended the application approach for the other a few zones until April, 2009.
Kentucky
There is nonetheless a good deal of ‘jockeying’ heading on, but the prospect of as many as 8 slot parlors and racinos appears to be back on the front-burner, but very likely not fixed for the duration of the existing legislative session.
Las Vegas
There are about fourteen,000 rooms scheduled to occur on line in 2009, with the most modern being the 390 place M Vacation resort in Henderson. There are expansions underway at the two Caesars Palace and Challenging Rock and new accommodations include two factors of the City Heart venture, and the Fountainebleau.
Louisiana
Pinnacle Entertainment’s new casino improvement assignments in Baton Rouge and Lake Charles, while delayed, are noted to even now be on-observe for opening this year and/or early 2010.
Maine
There is a invoice under thing to consider that could more than double Penn National’s slot devices to 3,000, as nicely as a proposal that would get rid of the restriction that slots be positioned inside of 5 miles of the observe. Scarborough Downs, which has been unsuccessful in convincing nearby residents to permit slots, may possibly be taking into consideration transferring to a far more hospitable town.
Maryland
A referendum was approved in November, 2008 that permits for the development of five casinos with a overall of fifteen,000 slots, and now the bidding war is afoot though it is not as extreme as the point out experienced anticipated.
Mississippi
Grand Soleil Casino Vacation resort in Natchez experienced been slated to open in 2008, but has operate into numerous financing concerns and although the resort part is open, the riverboat is described to open up in the Spring of ’09. Harrah’s Margaritaville Casino in Biloxi, while scaled back fairly, is even now on monitor to open up this yr.
New England
Massachusetts, a sleeping-huge in terms of marketplace potential, is even now maneuvering to open casinos/racinos, and/or a Course III Indian gaming facility, but are not able to seem to be to muster the political assistance. A current review completed by Dartmouth University estimates that Massachusetts resident spent more than $920 million previous year at Connecticut casinos and slot equipment parlors in Rhode Island and Maine. The New Hampshire legislature recently declined an choice to build casinos, however the subject is very likely to be revisited, particularly if Massachusetts decides to go forward. There are also makes an attempt in Maine to rethink its possibilities.
New Jersey
Atlantic City’s casinos have imposed their political will on staving off the addition of slot machines at racetracks by just lately agreeing to proceed augmenting purses with an further tax. The governor nonetheless, has appointed a new panel to review the state’s sagging racing software which ironically, can only be preserved by allowing the tracks to have slot equipment specifically at the Meadowlands. (See The Nor’easter Squeeze segment)
New York
Just when it appeared as if Aqueduct’s 4,five hundred VLT facility would ultimately be developed, the winning bidder indicated an incapacity to make the needed $370 million fee, citing the existing lending local weather, and throwing the task again into the lap of the governor. Despite the fact that the industry demand in the spot could be regarded quite powerful, the prospect of further competitors from close by Belmont could have an affect on Aqueduct’s underlining financial feasibility, specifically contemplating that somewhat much less than thirty% of the internet acquire is retained by the operator.
Programs to relocate Monticello Raceway into a resort complicated are getting reconsidered perhaps owing to both the possible opening of at least 1 or maybe two racino functions in the NY metro area, and the resurfacing of initiatives to development a Class III Indian gaming facility in the Catskills.
Ohio
But an additional gaming proposal is being set forth in Ohio, following last year’s edition was turned down by the voters. This prepare phone calls for one casino every single in the state’s greatest metropolitan areas: Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo. There would be a least expense required of $250 million, as effectively as an initial licensing price of $fifty million, and a 33 percent tax on gaming income.
Pennsylvania
The Sands in Bethlehem is thanks to open up in the Spring of ’09, and the new Rivers undertaking in Pittsburgh is expected to be operational in August, ’09 whilst Philadelphia’s two slot services even now wallow in a political mire, but are predicted to start construction this calendar year.
South Dakota
The Lodge at Deadwood is slated to open in the Slide of 2009, and include three hundred game titles, a hundred and forty rooms and a vast selection of amenities.
Texas
Legislators are proposing a voter referendum that would amend the point out constitution to permit casino gambling in designated regions, as effectively as let gambling on American Indian lands in Texas and at present racetracks.
West Virginia
The Greenbriar, the state’s venerable resort facility has submitted for individual bankruptcy, but has a new suitor in Marriott Hotels, who have reportedly tendered an offer. Condition authorities has proffered the idea of enabling the vacation resort to supply on line casino online games, but this effort is in way too early a stage to have any traction 1 way or another.
Indian Gaming
A latest Supreme Court ruling that restricts the getting of lands into believe in on behalf of federally identified American Indian tribes has more stymied some new Course III gaming initiatives across the country. Additionally, there were eleven Indian casino tasks rejected by the DOI very last year because of its new rule that casinos have to be near ample to a reservation that tribal associates can operate at them. It has been recommended that the new Obama administration might be far more sympathetic to the advancement of Indian gaming initiatives, but this issue has but to be addressed.
Meanwhile, there are other Course III initiatives in the different phases of advancement. The Seneca casino task in Buffalo, NY, while operating a modest short-term facility, has delayed an already under building long term facility until the marketplace rebounds. They have also expressed an interest in developing a on line casino in the Catskills. The point out gaming compact with Seminoles in Florida is becoming challenged, and could impact their strategies for larger projects. There are new Indian gaming tasks set to open in Michigan and Oklahoma this yr, and other people are in the preparing stage. Texas may enable the reopening of Indian gaming services and let other venue and there are plans afoot by the Navajos in Arizona to build further casinos. California is poised to open up two to a few new Class III casinos in 2009/ten.
The Nor’easter Squeeze
Overall gaming earnings in Atlantic City has declined seven.6 p.c, from $4.nine billion in 2007 to $4.five billion in 2008 with decreases continuing into 2009, as the city is discovering itself in an intense comp-war with the Pennsylvania venues. At one particular time the only casinos in the Northeast have been found in Atlantic Metropolis, where it seemed as if it may possibly truly even eclipse the Las Vegas Strip’s yearly gaming revenues.
Gradually however its market place share was becoming encroached on, 1st by the development of a huge Class III gaming operation in Connecticut, and then an additional slots operations in Rhode Island, and then video lottery terminals at New York racetracks, racinos in West Virginia and Delaware, and most not too long ago Pennsylvania.
Now, with the planned opening of slot operations in Maryland, the impending opening of a new casino in Bethlehem, PA, and eventually two functions in Philadelphia, the noose is tightening around Atlantic City’s potential prospective customers. It truly is reliance on working day-trippers lulled it into a untrue sense of security, and it now finds by itself possessing to redefine its mission assertion to “spot resort.”
The only problem with this method even so is that it is ill-outfitted to pull it off. For all intents and reasons, Atlantic Metropolis is beneath-roomed and/or above-gamed. There is merely not sufficient working day-tripper marketplace to go about, and their effective trading location is tightening, as the peripheral populations northward now/will have a lot more ready access to a widened source in New York (Yonkers, and soon at Aqueduct and possibly Belmont), westward in Pennsylvania and southward in Delaware, West Virginia and Maryland.
Other than the ocean obtain, the city’s only genuine aggressive advantages are its resort potential and the availability of desk game titles, although the latter is most likely to eventuate in Pennsylvania, and perhaps Delaware. In order to adequately contend as a location vacation resort the metropolis requirements to build extra guest rooms and not always gaming ability. By comparison, the Las Vegas Strip qualities – real gaming places, in that they do not have much of a working day-excursion market, besides for the ‘locals’ – have an common of .87 gaming positions per guest area while Atlantic City’s regular is two.seventy four positions for each guest room.
It is not a coincidence that Atlantic City’s two greatest lodges, the Borgata and Harrah’s Marina, each of which additional new rooms in 2008, ended up the minimum impacted by the newest downturn. The Borgata knowledgeable a gaming earnings drop of one.six p.c, whilst Harrah’s Marina noted a 4.nine per cent boost in contrast to 2007. In addition, the toughest hit venues, specifically the AC Hilton, Resorts and the Trump Marina, also have the smallest variety of rooms. In the meantime some of the venues are teetering on viability, including the the Trump qualities and Resorts with the hoped for sale of the Tropicana has been more delayed, and getting rid of valuation.
With a continual increase in gaming revenues through 2006, the city appeared key for more advancement, which precipitated planning for 4 new vacation resort assignments, every single of which have now been indefinitely delayed. Revel Leisure Group’s $two.5 billion undertaking remains an iron skeleton, Pinnacle Entertainment has declared it may possibly seek to sell its razed Sands website, MGM Mirage has shelved its casino ideas, and Penn National appears to have stopped its pursuit of the Bader Field airport website.